Posts Tagged ‘year’

State and Local Budgets in 2011: The Crisis that Didn’t Happen (Yet?)

The year’s top story in state and local government was “ hundreds of billions of dollars ” in municipal bond defaults.  Oh wait, that didn’t happen .  It was “ states coming to Congress as mendicants, seeking relief from the consequences of their choices .”  No, although the Dickensian imagery may fit with the holiday decorations, that didn’t happen either.  To the contrary, governors spent much of the year fretting about federal inaction on the budget and debt limit. What did happen is that state revenues rebounded .  After falling further and faster than in any recession since the Great Depression, taxes started coming back in early 2010.  They continued growing through the third quarter of 2011.  However, tax revenues still haven’t regained peak 2008 levels.  The latest data also suggest growth may be moderating, and some states are reporting monthly collections below projections.  2011 was also the year that local property taxes finally dropped .  The resilience of property tax revenues until now may seem puzzling given 30 plus percent housing price declines.  The explanation is that it typically takes 2 to 3 years for lower prices to show up as lower assessed values and property tax bills.  In the meantime, some local governments have been able to raise property tax rates to compensate for depressed home values.  Others benefited from lags in adjustment from home prices to tax revenues, just as homeowners benefitted from these delays in boom years

State and Local Budgets in 2011: The Crisis that Didn’t Happen (Yet?)

The year’s top story in state and local government was “ hundreds of billions of dollars ” in municipal bond defaults.  Oh wait, that didn’t happen .  It was “ states coming to Congress as mendicants, seeking relief from the consequences of their choices .”  No, although the Dickensian imagery may fit with the holiday decorations, that didn’t happen either.  To the contrary, governors spent much of the year fretting about federal inaction on the budget and debt limit. What did happen is that state revenues rebounded .  After falling further and faster than in any recession since the Great Depression, taxes started coming back in early 2010.  They continued growing through the third quarter of 2011.  However, tax revenues still haven’t regained peak 2008 levels.  The latest data also suggest growth may be moderating, and some states are reporting monthly collections below projections.  2011 was also the year that local property taxes finally dropped .  The resilience of property tax revenues until now may seem puzzling given 30 plus percent housing price declines.  The explanation is that it typically takes 2 to 3 years for lower prices to show up as lower assessed values and property tax bills.  In the meantime, some local governments have been able to raise property tax rates to compensate for depressed home values.  Others benefited from lags in adjustment from home prices to tax revenues, just as homeowners benefitted from these delays in boom years. The other big story of 2011 is state and local government job cuts .  Although the private sector added jobs in 2011, state and local governments have been shedding them since 2008.  Overall, state and local governments have cut 640,000 jobs (3.2 percent of payroll) since August 2008 and they show no signs of hiring again anytime soon.  What’s next for 2012?  Making New Year’s predictions is a mug’s game, but there are a few trends worth watching.  First, chickens will come home to roost.  It’s hard to imagine voters will fail to notice cumulative effects of real cuts to state and local government spending per capita in 2009 and 2010.  Tracking government outputs and service quality is always tricky.  However, news reports suggest longer waitlists, uninvestigated crime reports, shorter school years, etc.  If the economy does not pick up steam and voters continue to resist tax increases, we can expect more of the same in 2012.

Time to End the Budget Brinksmanship in Congress

Sometime today, Congress will pass a bill to keep the government funded through September 2012.

California’s Revenue Roller Coaster

Last week, while admiring the seals frolicking on a San Diego beach, I read some good news about California’s tax collections. State officials had just announced that Fiscal Year 2010-2011 revenues will likely exceed expectations by $2 billion , largely because personal income tax receipts are running ahead of projections.  Though still below 2010 levels, April withholding exceeded estimates by $250 million and 2010 tax return payments were up $400 million

Jon Stewart’s Fake News on Tax Expenditures

Dear Jon, The Daily Show is my favorite TV show.  I think you’re the smartest policy analyst on television.  (Okay, as you prove time after time, that’s a really low bar, but, seriously, you’re brilliant.) Last month, however, your satire missed the mark.

How Large Are Tax Expenditures?

Tax expenditures are getting increased scrutiny from budget hawks and tax reformers. New Treasury estimates, released as part of President Obamas recent budget, indicate that these tax preferences will reduce individual and corporate income tax revenues by almost $1.1 trillion in 2011. Those provisions will also increase spending on refundable tax credits by $108 billion and will reduce payroll and excise tax receipts by $111 billion.

Responses to Tax Incentives in a Complex and Uncertain Tax Law : Before the Senate Committee on Finance

Eric Toder’s testimony before the before the Senate Finance Committee on how tax law complexity limits the effectiveness of tax incentives.

Why the Tax Cut Reduced Pension Checks and Why It Doesn’t Matter

Many retirees were surprised when their January pension checks were smaller than their December payments.

Cap Tax Breaks Along With Direct Spending

Both President Obama and congressional Republicans want to cap some domestic spending programs as a way to reduce the budget deficit.

Tax Reform Won’t Happen in 2011 (or 2012)

Much as I hate to write these words, tax reform isn’t going to happen in the coming year, or even in the year after that. The bipartisan tax deal reached by President Obama and Congress earlier this month, along with a few kind words about closing tax loopholes from a handful of GOP lawmakers, has some reformers uncharacteristically optimistic about a quick agreement to revise the revenue code. But, sadly, they are wrong.

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